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Tom Wojcik’s Sept. 26 report traces how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting oil flows, fuel prices and fertilizer shipments. It describes risks to harvests and winter heating, while several claims and outcomes remain uncertain, including the duration of the closure and the scale of future shortages.
Tom Wojcik’s report dated Sept. 26, 2026, links the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz to higher oil prices and risks to fertilizer supply, harvests and winter heating. The account, written from a Polish perspective, describes overlapping pressures but does not establish how long the disruption will last or how large its eventual effects will be.
Wojcik writes that U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, and that Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. He says tanker traffic through the passage has fallen by more than 90 percent. The International Energy Agency, as quoted in the report, calls the disruption the largest the oil market has experienced.
Oil prices rose after a fragile ceasefire that had pulled them back to pre-war levels in early summer broke down. The report puts Brent crude near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and at $108 on Sept. 24. It also says Iran sent Washington a written proposal on Sept. 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the U.S. naval blockade; Washington rejected it.
The report follows the disruption beyond energy markets. It says the strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertilizer, while the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that scarcity could tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. In Europe, the account describes heatwaves and drought following reduced potato planting after a prior-year glut, with growers’ representatives expecting a sharply smaller harvest.
Fuel Shocks Reach Food and Heating
The report’s central concern is that a maritime disruption can affect several parts of daily life at once. Higher oil costs can raise the price of transport and fuel, while reduced fertilizer availability may affect later harvests. For households and governments in Europe, the combination also sharpens concern about winter heating and the reliability of energy supplies.
These consequences do not arrive on the same schedule. Fuel prices can respond quickly to shipping disruptions, while the effects of fertilizer shortages may appear months later in crop yields and food prices. Wojcik argues that reliance on suppliers and limited reserves leave countries exposed when multiple supply routes or energy sources come under pressure. That is the report’s interpretation; the precise scale of the effects remains unsettled.
From Gulf Shipping to Polish Farms
Wojcik frames the story through Poland, which he describes as a country bordering Europe’s largest war since 1945 and reliant on coal and imported gas for heating. The report connects the Gulf crisis with Russia’s war against Ukraine, saying Ukrainian drone strikes have hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, according to the IEA count cited by Wojcik. He says Russia’s refining output has fallen to a two-decade low and that Moscow has restricted fuel exports.
The account also cautions against reading every shortage report at face value. French official figures showed that 15 percent of fuel stations were out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The French government ruled out a national shortage. Wojcik says about nine in ten affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, where a price cap drew customers and demand reportedly outpaced replenishment. The figures count a station only if all petrol grades or diesel are unavailable.
“The government “rules out a shortage.””
— French government, as reported by Tom Wojcik
Duration and Harvest Effects Remain Unclear
The source does not establish when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, whether diplomatic efforts will resume, or how long oil prices will remain elevated. It reports that Washington rejected Iran’s Sept. 22 proposal and cites one report that the U.S. president expects bombing to resume after November’s midterm elections; that account is not independently detailed in the supplied material.
The eventual effect on food supplies is also not yet measurable. The FAO warning concerns possible yield and supply pressure extending into 2027, while the report’s harvest projections come from growers’ representatives. It does not provide a complete account of heating inventories in Poland or Germany, or quantify the likely impact on household bills.
Watch Shipping, Harvests and Winter Stocks
The next indicators are whether tanker traffic through Hormuz resumes, whether a ceasefire proposal gains traction and how oil prices respond. The report also points to the Bab al-Mandab passage in the Red Sea as a separate risk to shipping, after Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month, according to Wojcik.
Over coming months, crop yields, fertilizer availability and food prices will show whether the supply disruption produces the shortfalls described by agricultural authorities. Energy stocks and winter demand will matter for European heating security. The source gives no date for a resolution or a confirmed forecast of the disruption’s full economic cost.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed since March, sharply reducing tanker traffic and putting pressure on oil markets and fertilizer supply.
How high did Brent crude rise in September?
According to the report, Brent was near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and touched $108 on Sept. 24.
Does the report confirm a food shortage?
No. It cites warnings that fertilizer scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The size of any resulting shortage is not yet known.
Was France running out of fuel?
The French government ruled out a national shortage. The report says 15 percent of stations were out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, with many affected stations linked to demand at TotalEnergies locations with capped prices.
What is not yet clear?
The report does not establish when Hormuz will reopen, how long oil prices will remain high, or the eventual effects on harvests, food prices and winter heating supplies.
Source: hn
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